“Early in the season we were predicting pretty heavily above-average potential for large fires and above-average activity for most of the state,” says meteorologist Josh Clark of the Washington state Department of Natural Resources, “and we really haven't seen that manifest this year.” “It appeared that things were quite dry in the northwest and the western side of the region, and that our drought was going to continue to give us problems, and so what happened is something a little bit different than that,” says Klukas. 2020. It was just the latest in a string of wildfires that Washington is already experiencing. “The fuel piece is very key to why we've been able to control the fires that we have had.” “We can have all these factors that are priming the landscape for a potential fire season, but without human and lightning emissions, and summer weather, and fuel response, we're just not going to see those large fires manifest,” Clark says.
“While we did invest some money and a lot of time [into mask collection], we luckily haven't had to deploy those masks yet. Washington wildfires in 2019. What happened?The federal government abandoned us on coronavirus relief. Clark says it’s difficult to predict lightning strikes more than three days out; human actions are even more unpredictable. A Large Fire, as defined by the National Wildland Coordinating Group, is any wildland fire in timber 100 acres or greater and 300 acres or greater in grasslands/rangelands or has an Incident Management Team assigned to it. Another consideration is drought conditions. “The day-to-day, week-to-week weather has not been conducive to supporting these really large campaign-style fires, where we're putting big teams on them.”For Lolley, that checks out. The most moderate and severe drought areas are in Western Washington near the coast.“If you were to zoom this out and look at the entire Western US you would see Washington as the bullseye for drought concerns across the entire Western United States,” said DNR Meteorologist Josh Clark, looking at a drought map of Washington state. What I'm looking for is a significant period of time, maybe that's three, five, seven days, where we have very high relative humidity and sustained precipitation,” he says. It also has kept firefighting resources from being stretched thin. “They're catastrophic, of course, to the local population ... but they're not gigantic.” Despite projections, June rain and lower temperatures kicked the summer into a different gear.“We're not getting this sustained level of dryness that we would need to put our heavy [...] fuels into a receptive state, and a lot of that is happening across the West,” Clark says.In Seattle, for example, only two days have met or exceeded 90 degrees Fahrenheit, “which is kind of normal for our summers,” she says, but less than the 11 days in 2018, and the 12 in 2015, so we’re “really not [seeing] these large temperature extremes that we've seen in [past] summers.” Multiple experts told Crosscut that sustained rain, lightning activity and human activity — things meteorologists can’t reasonably forecast months out — have largely kept the season from getting out of control to date. The 2019 Washington wildfire season officially began in March 2019. “It's not like you say, ‘Hey, Smokey Bear says don't start fires,’ and then you go to that person and say, ‘Oh, are you going to start a fire now?’ You don't say that. “With a little bit higher moisture and timed moisture over the summer — and then with the existing resources we have both within the Forest Service and Department of Natural Resources, it's been a fairly mild summer,” he says “[Of course], if you’re one of the thousands of people that got evacuated from your home [this season], maybe it's feeling like a bigger fire season to you.” In predicting wildfire seasons, it’s those chaotic, random weather and human activity variables that can trip up early-season forecasts, experts say. “There's some areas that indicate that with the right conditions we could still have large catastrophic fire,” Connolly says. MOUNT VERNON, Wash. (AP) — Wildfire responders in Western Washington — including Skagit County — are preparing for a particularly bad wildfire season. The Northwest Fire Location map displays active fire incidents within Oregon and Washington. “Because if it's not now it'll be in a couple months from now, you know? Locals who prepared for fire are wondering how long it will be until their new tools and protocols are needed. The Kincade Fire in Sonoma County ignited on October 23, and burned about 78,000 acres—an area more than twice the size of the city of San Francisco. Here's the latest. So we have been a little surprised by some of the stuff, and our outlooks looked as bad as the inputs we put into them,” Eric Wise, fire weather meteorologist with the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center, says, referencing National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center data. “We’ll reevaluate at the beginning of [September] ... and we're certainly not saying that we're out of the woods yet.
We rely on those products from the Climate Prediction Center folks and, again, they just haven't verified very well this year.”The weather is sort of like the stock market, Wise says: Past performance doesn’t guarantee future returns — which means the season could still get bad.
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